Who will win March Madness in 2021? Vegas odds, favorites, sleepers to win the NCAA Tournament

After lacking out on final yr’s NCAA Tournament and worrying about whether or not we would really make it to this yr’s, it is (nearly) official — March Madness has arrived! All your favourite mid-March traditions are again, from shedding three Sweet 16 groups in your bracket pool by the finish of the first day to questioning what channel TruTV is. It’s actually a trigger for celebration. But in the midst of all the buzzer-beaters and upsets, there are additionally alternatives to make some critical cash, and it begins with breaking down the favorites, sleepers, and lengthy pictures in the Vegas betting odds for who will win the 2021 NCAA Tournament. 

There are 68 groups nonetheless in rivalry for school basketball’s greatest prize, although most followers would take into account not more than a handful practical contenders. Perhaps they’re proper, however skilled sports activities bettors know meaning there’s worth to be had with the “also-rans” in which the normal public has little curiosity. If a Cinderella dances all the method to the title recreation and pulls off a shocker, then somebody is making some critical cash someplace. Having not less than slightly money invested in just a few sleepers and probably a pair lengthy pictures is an efficient method to spherical out your betting portfolio even in the event you go heavy on one or two of the high groups. 

This yr, there’s a clear “one or two” high groups. Star-studded Gonzaga (+200) and Baylor (+600) lead the method after spectacular common seasons (together with Michigan at +600), however these won’t be the groups that pique sharp bettors’ pursuits the most. When making future bets, it is all about worth and realizing the angles, notably current accidents ( you, Michigan), favorable attracts (Gonzaga’s deadly flaw?), and superior stats (hi there Wisconsin!).

MARCH MADNESS: Get your printable NCAA Tournament bracket here

2021 NCAA Tournament odds

Odds are courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook

Team	Odds
Gonzaga	+200
Baylor	+600
Michigan	+600
Illinois	+700
Iowa	+1600
Houston	+1800
Alabama	+2100
Ohio State	+2400
Florida State	+3000
West Virginia	+3000
Virginia	+3000
Oklahoma State	+3000
UConn	+3200
Texas	+3500
Creighton	+4200
Texas Tech	+4200
Arkansas	+4200
Kansas	+4200
Wisconsin	+4200
Purdue	+4200
Villanova	+4400
Tennessee	+4800
Colorado	+4800
San Diego State	+4800
Loyola-Chicago	+4800
USC	+4800
BYU	+4800
North Carolina	+5500
Oklahoma	+5500
Oregon	+6500
LSU	+7500
Clemson	+8000
Georgia Tech	+8000
Florida	+8000
Maryland	+8000
Rutgers	+8000
Syracuse	+8500
Missouri	+10000
St. Bonaventure	+10000
Utah State	+11000
VCU	+11000
Georgetown	+12000
Virginia Tech	+12000
Michigan State	+12000
UCLA	+12000
Drake	+18000
Wichita State	+18000
Oregon State	+18000
Appalachian State	+20000
UC-Santa Barbara	+20000
Drexel	+20000
Grand Canyon	+20000
Morehead State	+20000
Cleveland State	+20000
Winthrop	+20000
Hartford	+20000
Abilene Christian	+24000
Colgate	+24000
Iona	+24000
Eastern Washington	+25000
Norfolk State	+24000
Ohio	+25000
Liberty	+25000
UNC-Greensboro	+25000
Mt. St. Mary’s	+25000
North Texas	+25000
Oral Roberts	+25000
Texas Southern	+25000

Who will win the NCAA Tournament in 2021?

Many have to battle the urge to put all 4 No. 1 seeds in the Final 4 when filling out their brackets. After all, these groups are No. 1 seeds for a purpose, proper? But the variety of instances all 4 high seeds have made it to the Final 4 is the identical as the variety of instances a No. 16 seed has crushed a No. 1 — as soon as. The former occurred in 2008, when North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, and Kansas all made it to the remaining weekend. So, the pure pivot is to decide three No. 1 seeds and one different staff. Simple, proper? Well, that is occurred simply 5 instances, so not precisely a “likely” occasion both. 

Nonetheless, many will persuade themselves that this will be the yr and take the path of least resistance (thought it must be closely resisted). The high 4 seeds this yr are Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois, and it is no shock these 4 sit atop the odds board. Let’s break down the outlooks for every of the favorites.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (+200)

Gonzaga (26-0) will be wanting to full the first undefeated season for a Division 1 males’s school basketball staff since Indiana in 1976. Many will knock the ‘Zags for taking part in in a weak convention (WCC), however with non-conference wins this yr over Kansas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Iowa, in addition to three convention wins over sixth-seeded BYU, Gonzaga has a powerful resume. Gonzaga’s +200 quantity won’t be that interesting to some, however it’s nonetheless plus cash for a dominant staff. 

The ‘Zags winding up in the West area with Iowa, Kansas, and Virginia might be a blessing or a curse. Both Kansas and Virginia have been pressured to withdraw from their respective convention tournaments due to optimistic COVID checks. They’re anticipated to play in the event however will definitely be shorthanded. That may lead to early exits and a weakened area. However, if the Jayhawks and Cavaliers advance to the  Sweet 16, they’re going to presumably be again to full energy and Gonzaga may need face two powerhouses simply to advance to the Final 4 (or Iowa and the reigning Player of the Year, Luka Garza).

By no means are we making an attempt to speak you out of betting on the ‘Zags, however it won’t be a nasty thought to additionally search for different worth alternatives.

Baylor Bears (+600)

Baylor (22-2) have been practically as dominant as Gonzaga this yr, solely shedding to Kansas throughout the common season and Oklahoma State throughout the convention event. The Bears will be examined as early as the second spherical after they will face both conventional energy North Carolina or advanced-metric darling Wisconsin (extra on the Badgers beneath). Baylor will additionally doubtless have to deal with both Ohio State, who simply beat Michigan and narrowly misplaced to Illinois in additional time throughout the Big 10 event, or defensive-minded Arkansas in the Elite 8 if it makes it that far. 

Getting the Bears at +600 nonetheless looks like good worth in contrast to Gonzaga at +200, although. Sure, the Bears simply confirmed they’re prone to shedding to an excellent staff, however that is true of everybody this time of yr. Don’t neglect the 23 video games earlier than that. Only Gonzaga (+23) and Colgate (+18.1) had larger margins of victory than Baylor (+18) this season.

Michigan Wolverines (+600)

It is likely to be stunning to some that Michigan (20-4) is tied for the second-best odds to win all of it regardless of shedding second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers to a foot harm in the Big 10 event. He is anticipated to miss not less than the first weekend and sure the second weekend, ought to Michigan advance. The Wolverines are nonetheless loaded with expertise, however clearly shedding their senior chief is lots to overcome. 

Unless Livers returns sooner than anticipated, Michigan’s +600 quantity does not really feel like nice worth in contrast to a few of the groups beneath it. The East area does not look notably loaded, however Alabama, the No. 2 seed, performs relentless protection, and Texas, the No. 3 seed, can dial up the stress, too. Fourth-seeded Florida State ranks eighth in three-point share, so you already know the ‘Noles can fill it up in a rush in the event that they get sizzling. 

However, simply because Michigan does not appear to be an excellent wager now does not imply that may’t change. If cash begins pouring in on different groups in the East and Michigan’s odds drop, then immediately Michigan will be a price. Again, that is nonetheless a supremely proficient, well-coached, and battle-tested staff. Things transfer quick on the betting market, so concentrate and strike when the time is correct. 

Illinois Fighting Illini (+700)

Fresh off successful the Big 10 event, Illinois (23-6) is the different high seed and appears like an honest worth at +700. The Illini enter the event as sizzling as any staff not named Gonzaga, boasting a seven-game successful streak that features victories in opposition to Michigan, Ohio State (twice), Iowa, Rutgers, and Wisconsin. Talk a few gauntlet. 

There’s no query Illinois has what it takes to win all of it, however a sneaky-tough potential second-round matchup in opposition to Loyola-Chicago looms, in addition to a possible Sweet-16 date in opposition to freshman sensation Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State. High-flying Houston or press-happy West Virginia additionally will not be cakewalks ought to Illinois meet a type of groups in the Elite 8. 

As we mentioned earlier, it is nearly a assure one among these No. 1 seeds — and sure two — will not make the Final Four. It’s potential the finest technique is to wager slightly one thing on all 4 and assume one will go all the method. Illinois would current the greatest payoff in that situation.

March Madness sleepers

What counts as a March Madness sleeper? Do you solely take into account groups with a “legitimate” shot at successful all of it? If that is the case, good luck. The high 8-12 groups will all the time stand out properly above the relaxation. However, in the event you’re simply searching for groups that may make a legit Final 4 run and possibly get fortunate sufficient to steal a title, properly, then you possibly can squint and discover a complete lot of choices.

We’ll take a look at one staff from every area that presents intriguing worth at their present odds. Some are (a lot) greater lengthy pictures than others, however selection is the spice of life.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3000)

OK, this one is boring. Oklahoma State (20-8) is excessive on everybody’s sleeper record due to freshman star (and sure No. 1 NBA draft decide) Cade Cunningham. The 6-8 ahead averaged over 20 factors per recreation this yr and simply led the Cowboys to an upset over Baylor in the Big 12 event semifinals. He adopted that up with a 29-point outburst in a shedding effort in opposition to Texas in the title recreation. 

Oklahoma State is the No. 4 seed in the Midwest area, the place Illinois is the No. 1. Between {that a} doubtlessly robust second-round matchup in opposition to the Tennessee-Oregon State winner (by no means thoughts a first-round matchup with sweet-shooting Liberty), Oklahoma State will have its work lower out for it, however having not less than slightly cash on the Cowboys is not a nasty thought. We’re not saying Cunningham is the second coming of Carmelo Anthony, who led third-seeded Syracuse to a nationwide title in 2003, but when there’s anybody in this yr’s subject who can pull off the same feat, it will be him. 

Kansas Jayhawks (+4200)

It’s nonetheless up in the air as to whether or not the Jayhawks will really play in this yr’s event after they withdrew from the Big 12 event due to optimistic COVID checks, so clearly you will have to pay shut consideration to the newest information out of Lawrence. But if Kansas is prepared to play this weekend, even with a thinned-out roster, the Jayhawks are intriguing at +4200. 

Kansas (20-8) has a powerful resume this yr with wins over Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma (twice), Texas Tech (twice), Oklahoma State, and Creighton, so you already know the Jayhawks can go toe-to-toe with anybody. They misplaced to Gonzaga, the No. 1 seed in the West area, 90-102 method again on Nov. 26 in their first recreation of the season, however the Jayhawks will not be intimidated by the ‘Zags if these groups meet in the Elite 8. Getting Kansas at the identical odds as Texas Tech and Creighton — two groups they’ve crushed — and properly beneath a 7-seed like UConn (+3200) and a fellow COVID-affected staff like Virginia (+3000) is good worth. 

LSU Tigers (+7500)/St. Bonaventure Bonnies (+10000)

Obviously, you don’t need to wager lots on groups enjoying in an 8-9 matchup, however with the winner of this recreation doubtless to face Michigan in the second spherical, it makes some sense. LSU (18-9) simply took out Arkansas in the SEC event semifinals and misplaced by a degree to Alabama in championship recreation. St. Bonaventure (16-4) is ranked twenty fifth on kenpom.com, which suggests the Bonnies have been underseeded. Either method, each groups will not less than throw a scare in a banged-up Michigan staff. 

If both have been in a position to get by Michigan, they might face a reasonably extensive open East area. By no means would both be the “favorite” at that time, however they may play with whoever is left. St. Bonaventure represents a greater worth, however in the event you consider extra in the Tigers, they might additionally repay properly.

Wisconsin Badgers (+4200)

Kenpom loves the Badgers, rating them tenth total. It’s a bit puzzling as to why the website’s superior formulation is so enthralled with Wisconsin (17-12), who misplaced in opposition to just about each high staff it performed this yr. That included two losses to Michigan, three losses to Iowa, two losses to Illinois, a loss to Ohio State, and a loss to Purdue. Wisconsin did beat Michigan State, Rutgers, and Maryland, in order that’s not less than slightly one thing. 

Wisconsin is the No. 8 seed in the South area, the place Baylor looms as the No. 1. You might argue placing cash down on Wisconsin at something lower than +7500 is a waste — and it in all probability is — however if the Kenpom numbers are proper about what is not readily obvious, then Wisconsin might doubtlessly pull off the stunning second-round upset. If that have been to occur, then the Badgers could be as harmful as any staff in the area. You can in all probability make a greater case for fourth-seeded Purdue (+4200), because it was a greater staff this season and will both get an injury-ravaged Villanova or Twelfth-seeded Winthrop in the second spherical if it advances that far, however we not less than needed all you eye-testers and record-skimmers on the market to concentrate on what the computer systems are saying. 

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