KUALA LUMPUR: As the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) holds its general assembly this weekend, political watchers are trying out for indications of the dynamics inside the occasion, and the way it might place itself forward of the following general election.
The general assembly, which has been postponed a number of instances from final yr due to COVID-19 case numbers, is generally some of the scrutinised political occasions in Malaysia, given UMNO’s anchor position in earlier Barisan Nasional (BN) governments, and its heavyweight position within the present ruling Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.
2021 additionally marks UMNO’s seventy fifth yr of existence. This yr’s gathering shall be held as a mix of face-to-face and digital occasions. Media shall be saved from coming into the corridor to cowl speeches and debates, due to well being protocol issues.
This general assembly takes on explicit significance at a time when UMNO has severed ties with Mr Muhyiddin Yassin’s Parti Pribumi Beratu Malaysia (Bersatu) going into the following general election, which shall be held after the nation has overcome COVID-19.
Additionally, some UMNO MPs have earlier expressed help for opposition chief Anwar Ibrahim, or withdrawn help for PN.
All eyes at the moment are on UMNO’s unity, given the differing indicators by the state chapters, mentioned these interviewed by CNA. Other points to watch for embrace how seat allocation will color UMNO’s political issues and whether or not a grand cut price is on the playing cards with Pakatan Harapan (PH).
PARTY UNITY
Although UMNO has indicated that it might solely cooperate with Bersatu till parliament is dissolved and elections are referred to as, there have been conflicting messages on whether or not either side will work collectively in the course of the campaigning.
READ: Bersatu to focus on ties among PN parties, says sec-gen after UMNO letter ceasing cooperation
Universiti Utara Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Ahmad Martadha Mohamed famous that at the state stage, the UMNO chapters have espoused differing approaches.
“There have been statements that UMNO will cooperate with Bersatu in some states like Sabah and Perlis (although Perlis has since recanted its stance). In others like Perak and Johor, the UMNO leaders there have clearly stated they will not work with Bersatu,” he pointed out.
View of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah politicians. (Photo: Bernama)
Political scientist Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, at present a scholar-in-residence at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies, mentioned UMNO needs to be understood as a realistic occasion.
“I would not put too much stock in UMNO’s confirmation not to cooperate with Bersatu in the next general election. ‘Unforeseen circumstances’ might occur along the way, and change the whole scenario,” Prof Ahmad Fauzi mentioned.
It was changing into clearer, the tutorial mentioned, that there are indicators of factionalism inside UMNO. He mentioned that one faction inside the occasion is in favour of supporting the PN authorities, although this would imply that UMNO can be taking part in second fiddle to Mr Muhyddin’s Bersatu.
“Elites in this group are being rewarded with appointments, both political and in government-linked companies as they thrive on pro-Malay sentiments, and the ‘No Anwar, No Democratic Action Party (DAP)’ rally cry,” he said, adding that this is in line with UMNO’s original slogan of “Hidup Melayu” (Long Live Malays).
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Another faction, he noted, was being led by UMNO party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
“Ahmad Zahid seems to be the pivotal person in secret negotiations with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to strike a deal with Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), not necessarily Pakatan Harapan, for GE15,” Prof Ahmad Fauzi mentioned, noting the 2 former deputy prime ministers’ connections go method again to 1998 when Mr Anwar was ousted by then-prime minister Mahathir Mohamad.
“Zahid was then a UMNO youth chief loyal to Anwar, a protege in fact,” Prof Ahmad Fauzi recalled.
READ: UMNO, Barisan Nasional to contest all parliamentary and state seats won in GE14, says Ahmad Zahid
SEAT ALLOCATION
One stumbling block preventing UMNO from striking a national agreement with Bersatu is the seat allocation issue, said Ms Aira Nur Ariana Azhari, the Democracy and Governance Unit Manager at think-tank Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs.
UMNO’s election director Tajuddin Abdul Rahman has already indicated that UMNO wants to contest in all seats it won in the last general election, including those they’ve since lost to defections, she said, pointing to a recent statement by the Pasir Salak MP.
“There are only so many Malay majority seats up for grabs, and both UMNO and Bersatu rely on these seats for votes,” Ms Aira said. Both parties’ grassroots leaders whose opinions matter in seat negotiations will also be in the equation, making it a difficult balancing act, she added.
United Malays National Organization (UMNO) President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (L) and Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) President Hadi Awang maintain palms throughout Ummah Unity Gathering in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, September 14, 2019. REUTERS/Lim Huey Teng
The scenario can be sophisticated by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia’s (PAS) pursuits.
While the Islamist occasion is primarily restricted to its energy bases within the east coast states of Kelantan, Terengganu and the northern state of Kedah, it’s a member in each the formally-registered PN coalition, and the Muafakat Nasional (MN) partnership with UMNO.
Party relations between UMNO and PAS have additionally taken a success, because the latter seems to be transferring nearer to Bersatu, mentioned Prof Ahmad Fauzi.
“PAS seems to have the higher hand within the ‘Malay belt’ areas of the nation, however whether or not UMNO advantages from this partnership (with PAS) remains to be questionable even after one and a half years in MN,” he said.
“PAS is not open to sharing the spoils of power with UMNO in the states it controls, despite the ideological convergence since both parties’ joint efforts to realise RUU355 (the hudud bill) in 2014,” he added.
ALL EYES ON GRASSROOTS’ VIEWS
Speculation that an agreement may be on the cards between UMNO and Mr Anwar has surfaced since September last year.
For Ms Aira, such a bargain would need to factor in the views of the grassroots. “PKR remains to be a part of the bigger PH coalition. The choice on whether or not or not to work with UMNO needs to be made along with PKR’s coalition companions, and after contemplating occasion grassroots opinion,” she said.
Prof Ahmad Fauzi said if UMNO could work out a deal with Mr Anwar and PKR, the party could also hope to strike a deal with elements in DAP so that it can also represent the non-Malays.
“UMNO could argue that DAP, being formally non-racial-centric in distinction with the racially organised MCA (Malaysian Chinese Association) and MIC (Malaysian Indian Congress), initiatives a greater Malaysian face.”
READ: Commentary – In making moves to align with UMNO, has Anwar’s PKR lost its moral compass?
“There has, furthermore, been rising help for DAP at grassroots stage even amongst educated younger Malays annoyed at the hierarchical bottlenecks they encounter in Malay-dominated events.” Prof Ahmad Fauzi noted.
However, a larger problem he said, would be convincing the grassroots that this was not a betrayal of DAP’s long-held ideals, especially in defending the rights of the non-Malays.
Assoc Prof Ahmad Martadha said that thus far, public statements had only been coming from a few leaders in UMNO. But the grassroots delegates’ discussions during the general assembly would give a clearer picture on the party’s future steps.
“It’s tough to state very clearly the official place from UMNO. We’ve heard from sure leaders, however with none general assembly, any precise place or dialogue about UMNO’s mandate, equivalent to whether or not to proceed working with Bersatu, we can’t make out the occasion’s path,” he mentioned.
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source https://infomagzine.com/what-to-watch-out-for-at-this-weekends-umno-general-assembly/
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