Welcome to the foolish season earlier than the 2021 NFL Draft, the place it looks like nearly each group with a first-round decide is able to make one other group consider it is going to take a quarterback on April 29. With 5 QB prospects worthy of going in the highest 32 and one who’s not less than a sturdy second-rounder, something can occur.
But from the lock on the group selecting No. 1 total to the Super Bowl 55 runners-up deciding on at No. 31, the chances of a quarterback in the forecast vary from 100 to zero p.c. Based on the large board and with 29 groups having first-rounders, 17 to 21 p.c of them ought to find yourself with a high-drafted rookie QB.
Would your group turn into one of them?
MORE NFL DRAFT: SN’s latest 1-32 mock draft | Big board of top 50 prospects
NFL QB mock draft 2021
Jacksonville Jaguars, Nos. 1 and 25
- Chances of taking a QB: 100%
- The decide: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Forget what some contrarian analysts are saying. Lawrence would be the new Jags franchise quarterback to usher in the Urban Meyer period. He’s one of the perfect QB prospects ever when simply taking a look at his bodily items. His intangibles then take him to an excellent larger degree.
New York Jets, Nos. 2 and 23
- Chances of taking a QB: 85 p.c
- The decide: Zach Wilson, BYU
The Jets should be buying and selling for Deshaun Watson however do not buy a lot into them settling for persevering with to roll with Sam Darnold. Should they keep put, they’d have a heavy lean towards changing Darnold. This can get nearer to 100% ought to Darnold get dealt quickly.
Miami Dolphins, Nos. 3 and 18
- Chances of taking a QB: 5 p.c
- The decide: Wilson or Justin Fields, Ohio State
The Dolphins are much less prone to commerce for Watson and so they simply used the No. 5 total decide on Tua Tagovailoa final 12 months. Tagovailoa nonetheless has large upside regardless of some rookie lumps to assume he can match classmates Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in changing into a tremendous long-term QB answer for his group.
Atlanta Falcons, No. 4
- Chances of taking a QB: 50 p.c
- The decide: Wilson, Fields or Trey Lance, North Dakota State
The Falcons have been tied to each Fields and Lance for brand new offensive-minded coach Arthur Smith below new GM Terry Fontenot. But they’re locked into the contract of Matt Ryan, who turns 36 in May, for not less than yet one more season. Stashing both dynamic twin menace QB can be a good transfer for the longer term, however the Falcons have a ton of extra urgent wants as a rebuilding group, and neither Fields nor Lance can be the “best player available.” This appears like it will possibly go both approach.
Cincinnati Bengals, No. 5
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
There is a few concern over when Burrow can return from the torn ACL he suffered on Nov. 22 of his rookie season because the No. 1 total decide, however he is anticipated to make a full restoration. He must be good to go in Year 2, both for the beginning or simply a few video games into the season. The Bengals will likely be targeted in getting him assist with an offensive deal with, huge receiver or tight finish.
Philadelphia Eagles, No. 6
- Chances of taking a QB: 15 p.c
- The decide: Wilson, Fields or Lance
There would possibly a shred of doubt about whether or not Jalen Hurts must be handed the job outright as a second-year second-rounder, but it surely’s extra possible the Eagles acknowledge his excessive all-around upside and management expertise makes him the precise QB to pair with new offensive-minded coach Nick Sirianni. Like the Bengals with Burrow, the Eagles ought to get Hurts assist, leaning extra talent place than line.
Detroit Lions, No. 7
- Chances of taking a QB: 10 p.c
- The decide: Wilson, Fields or Lance
New basic supervisor Brad Holmes made the blockbuster deal in sending 2009 No. 1 total decide Matthew Stafford to the Rams and getting 2016 No. 1 total decide Jared Goff in return. But in a presser this week, he additionally made certain to say how impressed he was by the “many flavors” of high QB prospects in the 2021 class. That’s a complete smokescreen and just like the Falcons, the Lions have a ton of defensive wants. They even have a few free-agency causes to handle huge receiver to assist Goff.
Carolina Panthers, No. 8
- Chances of taking a QB: 75 p.c
- The decide: Fields or Lance or Mac Jones, Alabama
The Panthers are nonetheless hoping they’ll revive their chances of touchdown Watson, however nevertheless you slice it, they weren’t pleased with the play of Teddy Bridgewater and are contemplating all avenues for a alternative. Without a Watson deal, neglect offensive deal with, huge receiver or tight finish to assist the QB; the highest offensive decide for Matt Rhule, Joe Brady and new GM Scott Fitterer can be a new QB. The greatest different can be the Luke Kuechly-like linebacker in this vary, Penn State’s Micah Parsons.
Denver Broncos, No. 9
- Chances of taking a QB: 40 p.c
- The decide: Fields or Lance
To need Drew Lock or change Drew Lock, that’s the core query in Denver. The Broncos have a number of different key wants, beginning with throughout their protection. The linebacker, cornerback and edge rusher choices are all fairly good towards that finish. The truth John Elway has handed GM duties to George Paton would possibly recommend the Broncos are much less fickle with QB and can present endurance with Lock into Year 3. But it additionally would shock nobody in the event that they gave up on Lock, too.
Dallas Cowboys, No. 10
- Chances of taking a QB: 10 p.c
- The decide: Fields or Lance or Jones
There’s an 85 p.c likelihood the Cowboys will both franchise-tag Dak Prescott or come to a long-term settlement with him to maintain him in Dallas. Here’s leaving open the small risk neither of that occurs and a fallback commerce for Watson or Russell Wilson is a complete pipe dream.
New York Giants, No. 11
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
Some Giants followers could be rising impatient with Daniel Jones, a a lot larger decide in the identical class as Lock. But New York ought to both improve round him right here with an offensive deal with, huge receiver or tight finish or go greatest defensive participant out there vs. forcing themselves into the QB dialog if that different Jones nonetheless is on the board.
San Francisco 49ers, No. 12
- Chances of taking a QB: 50 p.c
- The decide: Fields, Lance or Jones
Put Kyle Shanahan’s present group in the identical boat as his former group, the Falcons. The 49ers say they’re able to roll with Jimmy Garoppolo for an additional season, regardless of a straightforward contract out, with the main target being extra on upgrading their backup state of affairs with Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard going into free company. But in addition they would possibly understand it is laborious to move on a high-pedigreed passer who can push them into a cap-friendly rookie contract and in addition give them extra upside at a very powerful place.
Los Angeles Chargers, No. 13
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
With Herbert coming off a huge rookie season, the Chargers have a likelihood to be elite on the place quickly. They ought to focus most on getting him offensive deal with assist.
Minnesota Vikings, No. 14
- Chances of taking a QB: 25 p.c
- The decide: Fields, Lance or Jones
GM Rick Spielman mentioned the group is additional dedicated to Kirk Cousins, who did get a two-year contract extension a 12 months in the past. He’s signed via the 2022 season and the outs for his contract for actual cap reduction by way of launch or commerce are a lot better subsequent 12 months. But you cannot rule Minnesota from accelerating the timeline, particularly if 49ers make an aggressive supply to attempt to get him for Shanahan.
New England Patriots, No. 15
- Chances of taking a QB: 30 p.c
- The decide: Jones
If the query is ought to Bill Belichick and the Patriots draft a QB if not less than Jones is accessible, the reply can be a resounding sure. But post-Tom Brady, the Patriots are a laborious group to learn at this place after final 12 months’s Jarrett Stidham-to-Cam Newton mess. Jones is the QB bodily and mentally that compares greatest to Brady in this class, and New England has an affinity for gamers from Belichick buddy NIck Saban’s program.
Arizona Cardinals, No. 16
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
The Cardinals must be tremendous rolling with 2019 No. 1 total decide Kyler Murray, hoping for an excellent greater breakout Year 3.
Las Vegas Raiders, No. 17
- Chances of taking a QB: 30 p.c
- The decide: Lance or Jones
Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock all the time depart a good chunk of doubt in Derek Carr, regardless of how nicely he’s taking part in, do not they? Should they wish to seize a falling potential celebrity at QB, they’ll simply transfer on from Carr by way of commerce or launch, as that can price them solely $2.5 million in lifeless cash whereas getting $19.625 million in cap reduction.
Washington Football Team, No. 19
- Chances of taking a QB: 40 p.c
- The decide: Lance or Jones
WFT is about to launch Alex Smith and could be taking a look at a competitors between former Panthers kids Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke for the beginning job in 2021. The situation will likely be, with the inventory of Lance and Jones being inflated, is needing to commerce as much as really feel Washington is not reaching. The Football Team cannot be dominated out to commerce for a QB, anyplace from Watson to Darnold. Should WFT keep put vs. buying and selling down or up, huge receiver and offensive deal with can be non-QB offensive targets.
Chicago Bears, No. 20
- Chances of taking a QB: 40 p.c
- The decide: Lance or Jones
File the Bears proper together with Washington. Jones may need had a good likelihood of dropping down right here simply a few weeks in the past, however his sudden climb has shortly modified the provision and demand at QB. The Bears could be determined sufficient, in contrast to Washington, to achieve a little for Florida’s Kyle Trask or commerce down a few spots to get him. They additionally may get caught re-signing Mitchell Trubisky, or, on the reverse finish of the spectrum, pull off a blockbuster for Watson or Wilson.
Indianapolis Colts, No. 21
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
The Colts freed themselves of contemplating this place by getting 2016 No. 2 total decide Carson Wentz, nonetheless solely 28, from the Eagles. Despite attempting to rebound from disappointment in Philadelphia, he nonetheless will price Indianapolis $25.4 million towards the cap. The focus as an alternative will likely be on a left deal with to exchange Anthony Castonzo, a huge receiver to exchange T.Y. Hilton or greatest defensive participant out there with free company points there.
Tennessee Titans, No. 22
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
Ryan Tannehill has performed at an unbelievable degree beginning for them in a run-heavy offense tailor-made to his passing and athletic strengths the previous two seasons. He’s nearer to the ceiling of QB play in the league than the ground. He turns solely 33 in July with three extra years left on the large deal he signed to remain final 12 months.
Pittsburgh Steelers, No. 24
- Chances of taking a QB: 20 p.c
- The decide: Jones or Kyle Trask, Florida
The Steelers reworked Ben Roethlisberger’s contract to carry him again on a extra cheap one-year deal after turning 39 on March 2. That mentioned, give that is a short-term answer, they want a QB possibility for the longer term who is not Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins. They may wait till No. 55 in the second round and hope Trask is there, however they should not be abruptly dominated out of the sport in the first round.
Cleveland Browns, No. 26
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
Baker Mayfield is way from a excellent passer and there are some questions on whether or not his ceiling is restricted as a operating game-dependent quarterback. But the Browns simply received greater than they’ve for a very long time with him on the helm, exhibiting his successful management expertise on high of his dedication to enhance his bodily items. The Browns ought to assume protection first, with both an edge rusher or linebacker.
Baltimore Ravens, No. 27
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
Lamar Jackson’s scorching second-half end to the 2020 season — after a sluggish begin with some offensive predictability — reminded the Ravens of his 2019 MVP work. As they concentrate on a long-term contract for him, they’ve worries on protection first to think about but when the worth is true, in addition they can get him some huge receiver assist.
New Orleans Saints, No. 28
- Chances of taking a QB: 30 p.c
- The decide: Jones or Trask
Drew Brees hasn’t selected retirement but. Jameis Winston seems to be like he is certain to go away as a free agent, with the Saints being cap-strapped and the 2015 No. 1 total decide pushing his worth again a little along with his good backup stint in a nice offense. The Saints have made a laborious promote on Taysom Hill being the long-term reply and he confirmed indicators he may deal with that final 12 months, however maintain in thoughts he is going into his age 31 season making $16.3 million and is unsigned for 2022.
Green Bay Packers, No. 29
- Chances of taking a QB: 1 p.c
- The decide: Trask
Hey, you additionally did not assume they’d be taking a late first-round QB in Jordan Love final 12 months. Joking and miniscule chances apart, let’s hope the Packers use this decide to get reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers some assist, both with an offensive lineman or complementary receiver to Davante Adams.
Buffalo Bills, No. 30
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
If the Ravens and Browns aren’t pondering QB in any respect given their sturdy first-rounders from 2018, the Bills, after an MVP-caliber third season from Josh Allen, have even much less purpose to assume they’ll improve with anybody else.
Kansas City Chiefs, No. 31
- Chances of taking a QB: Zero p.c
They have Patrick Mahomes locked in for a decade after which he’ll actually personal Kansas City.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, No. 32
- Chances of taking a QB: 5 p.c
- The decide: Trask
Tom Brady is below contract for yet one more season and there are rumblings that he may comply with play for one other two with the Buccaneers. But he nonetheless is 43 so it is not unhealthy to assume a little bit about getting a successor who may be groomed behind him, very similar to Garoppolo was a entire seven years in the past in New England.
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